2019年第一季 纽约房价市场报告与房市预测

纽约房价

全美权威的地产平台 Zillow Streeteasy的地产分析师 Grant Long写了一份关于2019年的报告,我来稍微翻译与分析他的报告内容。有兴趣看原文的我特别留下了原文可以看看哦。

2018年度过了两个极端,出租市场的稳定与买卖市场的动盪,与之前的预测一样,高端市场持续低迷,纽约市交通问题持续成为主导纽约房市的主要因素之一。即便如此,市场已与2018年相当不同,我们预测将会看到以下六个趋势:

What’s in store next year?
Between a resilient rental market and a bumpy sales market, 2018 was a turbulent year for New York City real estate. As we predicted a year ago, luxury prices have continued to sink, and transportation headaches have played a big role in driving market dynamics. Given that the housing market looks a lot different than it did a year ago, here are six broader trends we see dominating 2019.

1. 买家市场持续

2018年的房源出现了空前的高峰,但成交量却下滑了。更多的纽约客根据他们的实际需求或是投资将会持续提供卖房房源,而这会让已经饱和的卖房市场更加饱和。这些卖家需要更多的努力才能成功的销售。虽然卖家的降价的数量达到了金融危机的数字,但折价的实际金额却没有变化,这表示许多卖家开始瞭解房市的现实面,愿意开出更符合市场的开价。2018过去许多卖家可以开出高价,等待买家杀价的策略并没有成功,我们预估2019也不会是个成功的策略。

The Buyer’s Market Is Here to Stay …
The number of homes listed for sale on StreetEasy hit all-time highs during 2018, yet recorded sales throughout the city fell. More New Yorkers — seeking to accommodate a growing family, to relocate, or simply to cash out their investment — will inevitably look to sell in 2019, adding to a market that’s already saturated. These sellers will need to take much greater measures to move their homes.

While the share of listings on StreetEasy with a price cut hit its highest levels since the wake of the financial crisis, the average amount of those price cuts (on both a percentage and absolute basis) has not budged. Instead of coming to grips with the fact that asking prices are too ambitious, most sellers are making small, incremental adjustments to attract buyers. This strategy didn’t work in 2018, and isn’t likely to in 2019.

2. 皇后区的崛起

2018年 皇后区的房价成长相当快速,超过了曼哈顿与布鲁克林,但实际价格仍然非常实惠,平均价格在65.7万 (曼哈顿在139万,布鲁克林在95万)。这个成长速度归于过去几年的迟缓,自2008的金融危机后,曼哈顿与布鲁克林的房价成长速度明显超过皇后区。虽然亚马逊的进军(已取消)也是个房价成长的因素,但即便没有亚马逊的总部决定,皇后区还是会稳定成长,因为许多纽约客纷纷往价格更加实惠且交通方便的的皇后区移动。

… Unless You’re in Queens

The big outlier in the sales market in 2018 was Queens. Prices there have risen at a consistently faster pace than in Brooklyn or Manhattan, yet remain relatively affordable, with an average listing price of $657,000, compared to Manhattan’s $1.39 million and Brooklyn’s $950,000. Much of the enduring price growth in the borough is attributable to making up for lost time: According to the StreetEasy Price Indices, home price appreciation in Queens has significantly lagged growth in Manhattan and Brooklyn since the end of the 2008 financial crisis. The borough’s performance will likely grow with Amazon’s plans to move into Long Island City, but it was likely to continue anyway, given the number of New Yorkers seeking out the relative convenience and affordability of Queens.。

3. 下城是新的下城

房价与利率使许多人选择租房,而我们将看到租房市场的热络与竞争,过去几年许多下城週边的区块都已经超过曼哈顿本岛的房租了。这些地区,包括布鲁克林的Dumbo(单波)、布鲁克林下城、以及皇后区的长岛市以及超过曼哈顿本岛的Chelsea、Nolita、以及East Village东村的房租了。这些出租房源虽然以单价来说还是比较实惠,但在总价已经与曼哈顿许多地区一样了。

2019年,我们将看到曼哈顿本岛这些地区的成长,重新夺回高房租的宝座。

Downtown Is the New Downtown

With interest rates and sales prices high, renting will remain more attractive than buying for many New Yorkers in 2019. We expect competition for rental units in many of the city’s priciest, most central neighborhoods to heat up next summer. Rents in newly chic neighborhoods in outer-boroughs now equal those in many Manhattan neighborhoods: This fall, median rents for 1-bedroom apartments in Dumbo, Downtown Brooklyn, and Long Island City exceeded those in Chelsea, Nolita, and the East Village, respectively. Outer-borough new construction may still offer more per dollar in terms of space and amenities, but with roughly similar median prices in many outer-borough and Manhattan neighborhoods, choosing among them has become more a matter of preference than affordability.

4. Bedlam 的起伏 (L 地铁线原先说要关闭,但现在又说不一定关,所以这个不一定准确)

我们看到布鲁克林L线的地区房租与房源开始下滑,虽然许多新创公司,但杯水车薪、并无法解决根本问题。布鲁克林通勤的人数非常可观,我们认为目前许多布鲁克林的居民并没有完全瞭解问题的严重性以及影响范围,未来仍有许多下跌空间。

Bedlam on Bedford Avenue

Next year will be a trying one for those living along the L train, with the popular commuting line set to shut down for 18 months beginning April 27. We’ve seen the market for nearby rentals steadily weaken over the course of 2018, as longtime residents decamp for more convenient neighborhoods. Nonetheless, StreetEasy user interest in the neighborhood remains high. Myriad replacements for the L train, from electric Citi Bikes to startup van services, are taking shape, but likely all of these modes of transport — including the subway alternatives planned by the city — will strain under the sheer volume of Brooklynites needing them. Our bet is that many in Williamsburg have underestimated the inconvenience of the shutdown. With North Brooklyn rents hovering around the same level as 2015, we think there is room for them to fall.

5. 大型项目成熟(我个人认为许多是失败的)

过去20年,纽约市出现了许多大型专案的规划与开发,2019年将是个验证他们是否成功的一年。光是哈德逊广场就有3-4个大规模项目完工,新大楼的交房,包括57街的新的超高楼与布鲁克林的超高楼,曼哈顿下东区的新市集Essex Crossing也将推出。亚马逊的总部(已取消)也更加带动了长岛市的发展,布鲁克林的多个城市综合体专案也同样将要完成。但我们已经看到许多大型专案销售速度与开发速度都严重不如预期,其他大型专案还有Waterline Plaza 水线广场与 BronxPoint。2019年或将是验证这些开发商是否能够成功的关键一年。

Megaprojects Mature

Enormous building projects have been a hallmark in New York City for the past two decades, and 2019 will be a pivotal year for judging whether they’ve lived up to the hype. Big sections of Hudson Yards are slated to debut in 2019, including 15 Hudson Yards, the Vessel and the Shed. New towers will top out in Downtown Brooklyn, as new phases of Essex Crossing hum along.

While the Amazon HQ2 announcement has buoyed developments in Court Square and Hunters Point, 2019’s weak sales market is going to prove challenging for large developments elsewhere. Among them: the relatively remote Two Bridges area nestled alongside the East River, where the $1.8 billion condo development One Manhattan Square slated to open in early 2019 is the first of three large residential towers planned for the area. Similarly, an additional 11 new buildings are due through 2035 in Brooklyn’s Pacific Park, though condo sales at 550 Vanderbilt — one the of project’s most prominent market-rate buildings — were slower than expected and relied heavily on investors listing them for rent shortly after closing. Next year may be make-or-break for these developments, and could determine the fate of other planned megaprojects around the city, including Waterline Square and Bronx Point.

6. 科技新创人不买Condo(独立产权)的帐

Google谷歌与亚马逊(亚马逊取消,谷歌确定进军,Disney也会来)加码纽约市将会带动高收入的白领阶级人士进入这个市场,且会像三藩市与西雅图一样带动当地房市,但想要买高卖高的投资客可能要失望了。这些工作人员虽然相对高薪资,但仍无法承担30平米就要近百万美金的价位。这些买高端房的投资客可能要被套牢一段时间了(跟我一直说一样,现在应该买刚需房)。

Tech Bros Won’t Buy Condos

Both Google and Amazon have made waves by announcing massive hiring plans in the city. Real estate pros rejoiced, as the influx of highly paid professionals will likely push up the cost of housing, much as its has in San Francisco and Seattle. Sellers hoping to flip their luxury condos to these workers, however, are likely to be disappointed.

The $150,000 average annual salary of a new Amazon HQ2 employee is well above the city median, but still far from sufficient to make a multimillion-dollar condo affordable. Moreover, tech workers who do have the means to buy in the city’s pricer new buildings may balk at prices in excess of $1,000 per square foot for a 466-square-foot studio in Queens — well above those of homes adjacent to Amazon’s Seattle headquarters. Investors are buying into many high-priced new developments across NYC, opting to rent out the units while betting on future price appreciation, but those bets have become crowded. While diversifying away from financial services is a welcome move for the New York City economy, it’s unlikely to provide a bailout for those speculating on high-priced luxury condos languishing on the market.

以上就是2019年的预估,如果有兴趣买卖投资的话,欢迎主动联繫。

文章作者

Jerry C. Wang 王传咏 是 Copanel 纽约房地产经纪中介公司的创办人,在纽约市有超过20年的经验,对于当地市场有深度的了解且已处理数千万美金的销售额, 帮助了许多客户的买卖交易、售后出租管理以及许多学生留学住房的服务。 在 Jerry 创立 Copanel 以前,曾任职纽约最大的房地产经纪中介公司 Douglas Elliman 道格拉斯 艾丽曼经纪公司多年。

Copanel 创立于2018年,专门提供纽约房产的买卖与出租服务,并会提供许多纽约房产的基本常识、新房介绍与评论、以及地区介绍等相关信息。

若您想了解更多信息,欢迎主动联络。

Jerry C. Wang 王传咏
全美前1% 纽约市房产经纪人
电话: +1 (917) 225-7078
邮箱:jerry@copanel.co
微信:zerry1017
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